Rare! A-share sudden change

The market opened lower and went lower all day, and the three major indexes all fell more than 1%. The yellow-white time-sharing line of the index was obviously differentiated, and small and medium-sized stocks generally fell.

On the disk, power stocks opened higher, and Xichang Power had a daily limit. PCB concept stocks were partially active, with Kexiang shares and Tianjin Pulin trading daily. Digital currency’s concept stocks changed in the afternoon, and Zhaori Technology and Royal Bank Co., Ltd. had daily limit. On the downside, science and technology innovation board’s new shares were collectively adjusted. There was no increase in the sector, with science and technology innovation board’s sub-new, MR, brain-computer interface, e-commerce and other sectors leading the decline. On the whole, stocks fell more and rose less, and nearly 5,000 stocks in the whole market fell.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.55% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 1.39%. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 695.6 billion, 76 billion more than the previous trading day.

01Market value "one brother" rarely changes hands.

Today, the three major A-share stock indexes fluctuated and fell, closing down more than 1%, and all major industry sectors fell.

It is worth noting that,The position of the "first brother" in market value has changed hands today.. Under the influence of the continuous decline in Feitian wholesale price, Kweichow Moutai, the "first brother in the original market value", opened lower by more than 3% today. Although it finally turned red, its total market value has been overtaken by ICBC and relegated to second place.

Specifically,As of the close of June 24, there were only 8 A-share stocks with a total market value (A-share and Hong Kong-share market values calculated separately and added) above 1 trillion yuan.Among them, ICBC rose more than 1% today, and with the market value of Hong Kong stocks, the total market value has reached 1.86 trillion yuan, surpassing the 1.85 trillion yuan of Kweichow Moutai, becoming the new "first brother" in market value.

It is reported that the market value of Kweichow Moutai surpassed that of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, reaching the top of the A-share market on June 20, 2020, and has maintained the top position of the A-share market value since then. That is to say,After a lapse of four years, ICBC regained its position as the "market value leader" of A shares.

Kweichow Moutai also has the latest response to recent market doubts.A related person from the investor relations department of the company said that it has paid attention to the fluctuation of stock price. At present, the production, operation and marketing of the company are normal, and the fluctuation of stock price is still due to market reasons.

For Feitian Maotai bulk bottles, the reference price dropped to around 2100 yuan.Are there any price stabilization measures?The person said that the company has paid attention to this issue and will take corresponding measures, but did not disclose what specific measures will be taken. with regard toWhether to cancel the whole container delivery of 12 bottles of Feitian Maotai?The above-mentioned person said that it needs to be verified. For the stock price decline, the companyWill you consider measures such as repurchase?The above-mentioned person said that these major issues involving the company need to be announced, and there is no specific news before the announcement.

On the whole, the recent continuous adjustment of the market, the differentiation of industry sectors and the flight of market funds have intensified intraday fluctuations, and short-term emotional fluctuations have a greater impact on the market.Jufeng Investment Gu Zhu Hualei believes that the market has continued to weaken recently, the market center of gravity has been moving down, the plate has risen and fallen, and the persistence of hot spots has weakened, and the market has a wait-and-see moodRising, under the overall correction of the market, the defensive mood in the field is prominent.

In the short term, the downward trend of the market may continue, and the stock index may continue to explore for technical support. Moreover, the market stock capital game, the frequency of plate rotation and hot spot switching is faster, and the difficulty of market participation is greatly enhanced. Therefore,Investors are advised to wait and see in the short term and wait patiently for the follow-up market to stop falling and stabilize.

02Science and technology innovation board ushered in new changes.

It is worth noting that in the recent weak market situation,There have been some new changes in A-share science and technology innovation board, and it has already met the first condition of strength.

Under the general framework, a board moves cattle, mainly from two driving forces: one is epitaxial growth, and the other is endogenous growth. Judging from the current situation, science and technology innovation board’s epitaxial growth drive is already available.-On June 19th, the CSRC issued "Eight Measures on Deepening science and technology innovation board’s Reform, Service, Scientific and Technological Innovation and Development of New Quality Productivity". The document specifically mentions greater support for mergers and acquisitions. Support listed companies in science and technology innovation board to carry out mergers and acquisitions in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Improve the inclusiveness of M&A and restructuring valuation.

With the support of policies,Two science and technology innovation board companies took the lead, and the long-dormant M&A market became active.

First, Naxinwei intends to acquire McGovern.79.31% of the shares.

According to the announcement, Suzhou Naxin Microelectronics Co., Ltd. intends to acquire 62.68% shares of Shanghai McGoen Microelectronics Co., Ltd. directly held by Shanghai Sirui Technology Co., Ltd., and intends to acquire 5.60% shares of McGoen indirectly held by Sirui Technology through Shanghai Lairui Enterprise Management Partnership (Limited Partnership) in cash, for a total of 68.28% shares of McGoen, with a total purchase consideration of 682.8216 million yuan.

The company intends to acquire 13.51% of the total contribution of Shanghai Lairui held by Zhu Jianyu and Jie Jiang in cash (corresponding to 2.37% of the shares held by McGoen), and 43.82% of the total contribution of Shanghai Liuci held by Jun Fang and Wei Shizhong (corresponding to 8.66% of the shares held by McGoen) in cash, with a total purchase consideration of 110,301,200 yuan.

After the completion of this transaction, the company will directly and indirectly hold 79.31% of the shares of McGovern, of which 68.28% will be directly held, and 11.03% will be indirectly held through Shanghai Lairui and Shanghai Liuzi, which can determine the appointment of more than half of the board members of McGovern, and McGovern will become a holding subsidiary of the company and be included in the consolidated statements of the company.

Affected by the news, in the early morning of June 24, Naxinwei rose by over 11%, reaching a maximum of 131.42 yuan/share, with a closing increase of over 4%.

Second, Xinlian Integration plans to acquire 72.33% equity of Xinlian Yuezhou.

According to the announcement, the company intends to purchase 72.33% equity of Xinlian Yuezhou held by 15 counterparties, including Binhai Xinxing and Yuanzhi No.1, by issuing shares and paying cash. After the completion of this transaction, Xinlian Yuezhou will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company, and the shareholders’ equity of Xinlian Yuezhou will be 100% included in the merger scope of the listed company. Through this transaction, the listed company’s control over Xinlian Yuezhou is further enhanced. In the future, it will take advantage of the listed company’s technical advantages, customer advantages and capital advantages to focus on supporting the development of silicon carbide, high-voltage analog IC and other businesses, and better implement the company’s overall strategic deployment.

Affected by this, in the early morning of the 24th, the core integration rose by more than 6%, reaching a maximum of 4.28 yuan/share, and closed up by more than 3%.

Market analysts believe that,Judging from previous A-share bull markets, extensional growth is indispensable. At present, science and technology innovation board is clearly ahead.More and more listed companies are expected to improve asset allocation through mergers and acquisitions, stimulate market vitality and promote the vigorous development of the M&A market. However,The current market may still be an endogenous drive away from cattle.After all, all high-quality M&A activities need the support of high-quality assets.

03A-share "seven turnovers" can still be expected.

Finally, return to the follow-up trend of the A-share market.

After experiencing the decline in May and June, with the approach of July, the market is paying more and more attention to the calendar effect of "turning over from poverty to poverty". Whether it can "turn over" in July has become the focus of investors’ recent attention. Many institutions have also made judgments on this.

From the perspective of fundsIn the near future, the volume can drop, the consumption core assets drop to a low level, the assets at both ends of the attack and defense switch (dividend →A50, export chain → technology), or the market is still looking for new expected differences and main lines under the expectation of weak fundamentals.From the valuation point of viewAt present, the all-A risk premium approaches the upper edge of the corridor with a standard deviation of ±1.5x, and the implied real estate /M1 expectation may have been substantially overshooted.From a policy perspectivePositive clues such as the follow-up financial pulse (about three quarters ahead of M1 year-on-year, and the financial strength has picked up since the fourth quarter of last year) will gradually emerge.

Therefore,Huatai Securities believes that under the guidance of funds, valuation and policies, the "seven-turn" market may still be expected under the background of low market expectations.We will continue to pay attention to the incremental policies of the Third Plenary Session and Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party in July.

In terms of specific configuration,Huatai Securities suggested that the winning rate should be maintained in the medium term, and A50 assets may be the optimal solution for the bottom position.

Pay attention to three configuration clues:① Under the pressure of macro supply and demand, the industrial giant represented by ——A50, which keeps the ROE center stable by virtue of its own ability improvement but the market is priced down the ROE, has the value of cutting positions; ② At the industry level, the mass consumption leader represented by household appliances/food and drink/logistics/publishing also has the above characteristics; (3) Based on the inventory cycle and production cycle, tap the industries with two-way improvement of supply and demand-consumer electronics/panel/shipping/light industry, etc.