Hong Kong ｜ The winter has passed and the dawn is gradually emerging.
(Year-end feature) Hong Kong | The economic winter has passed and the dawn is gradually emerging.
China news agency, Hong Kong, December 27th (Reporter Wei Huadu, Liu Chenyao) In 2022, the COVID-19 epidemic and the external environmental impact remained the same. In the eyes of some people, Hong Kong’s economic performance was not satisfactory. However, all walks of life in Hong Kong refused to "lie flat", and the road to normalization was difficult, but they became more and more brave. As the pace of "customs clearance" approached, the dawn of Hong Kong’s economy gradually appeared.
Hong Kong’s economic winter is over.
Judging from the data, Hong Kong’s economy once bottomed out in 2022. Since the beginning of this year, the Hong Kong SAR Government has repeatedly lowered its annual GDP growth forecast from 2% to 3.5% to minus 3.2%, and it is expected to record a fiscal deficit of over 100 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Wu Lixian, securities strategist of China Everbright Securities International Co., Ltd., said that Hong Kong is an export-oriented economy, and the goods exported from the mainland of China through Hong Kong have decreased due to the closure measures imposed by the epidemic and the weakening of external demand; In addition, interest rate hikes by major central banks around the world have also continuously impacted the investment environment in Hong Kong. This momentum will make Hong Kong’s economy still face challenges in the first quarter of next year, but Wu Lixian believes that the slowdown in foreign interest rate hikes in the second half of 2023, the economic stability in the Mainland and the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures will bring good news to Hong Kong.
In fact, the dividend has been delivered in advance in the last few days of 2022. On the evening of December 26th, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council released the "Overall Plan for Implementing" Class B and B Tube "for novel coronavirus infection, which proposed to cancel the nucleic acid detection and centralized isolation for all personnel after entry. This means that Hong Kong will soon achieve "customs clearance" with the Mainland.
Zhuang Tailiang, executive director of Liu Zuode Institute of Global Economics and Finance of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in an interview with China News Service: "With the recent reopening of the mainland, the flow of people between the two places will drive up the retail, tourism and store rents in Hong Kong. It is estimated that Hong Kong’s GDP will increase by 5% next year."
Hold a grand event and return to the world stage
The economic forecast for the whole year is hardly optimistic. Chen Maobo, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong SAR Government, once said that as long as the epidemic continues to be controlled and foreign activities are further resumed, it is expected to support the gradual strengthening of economic recovery in the future. In 2022, Hong Kong did just that.
Since the epidemic situation gradually stabilized in the second half of the year, "returning to normal" has been put on the agenda, and the entry epidemic prevention measures have been gradually relaxed, and restoring communication with the outside world has become the primary task. Since the end of August, the "Belt and Road" Summit Forum, Hong Kong Financial Technology Week, International Financial Leaders Investment Summit, International Rugby Sevens, and several Greater Bay Area Financial and Economic Forums have been held one after another, making Hong Kong become the international focus again.
Li Jiachao, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, delivered the message "Hong Kong has returned to normal" to more than 200 foreign guests at the International Financial Leaders Investment Summit in early November, and received a positive response. International financial giants said at the meeting that Hong Kong is still a very important international financial center, and many foreign companies are preparing to increase investment in Asia and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Hong Kong will provide assistance as a "super contact".
It was followed by the international rugby sevens tournament, an international sports event that had been away for three years. In just three days, it attracted more than 65,000 people, many of whom were foreign tourists from afar.
Zhu Jiajian, a Hong Kong invited member of the National Hong Kong and Macao Research Association, believes that foreign guests have come from afar, which shows their confidence and affirmation in the return of Hong Kong’s economy and proves Hong Kong’s attractiveness to international investors.
Grasp the opportunity and innovation power in the mainland
In 2023, Hong Kong is speeding up its return to normality and taking off again.
"The biggest opportunity for global development in 2023 is in China, and the biggest opportunity for Hong Kong’s development is in the mainland." Cai Guanshen, president of the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, believes that relying on the motherland is the advantage of Hong Kong’s economy. Hong Kong’s financial position is solid and its key advantage as a bridge for foreign capital to enter the mainland remains unchanged. I believe that after customs clearance with the mainland, Hong Kong’s economy will soon regain its vitality.
Cai Guanshen’s confidence comes from a number of new policies issued by Hong Kong this year. For example, Shenzhen Qianhai Administration and the Treasury Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Government jointly issued "Article 18" in early September, including building Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong International Venture Capital Cluster and facilitating two-way cooperation in cross-border investment between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. He believes that the innovative and breakthrough mechanism for the governments of the two places to support the development of private equity and venture capital funds can not only promote the cooperation between Hong Kong and Qianhai in financial technology, but also help to form agglomeration effect and promote the cross-border flow of innovative capital to form scale effect.
"All kinds of measures are believed to further attract funds interested in investing in the mainland to use Hong Kong as their base camp, open up the capital circulation between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, guide funds from all directions to invest in Greater Bay Area’s creative industries, and let finance serve the real economy." Cai Guanshen said.