Foreign trade operation meets expectations.

As one of the "Troika" driving economic growth, foreign trade is a key hub connecting domestic and international double cycles, and its development trend has attracted much attention.

Since the beginning of this year, global merchandise trade exports have weakened, and the foreign trade of major trading countries has experienced negative growth, and China’s foreign trade has been under great pressure. According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade was 34.32 trillion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate changed from 0.2% in the first three quarters to 0.03%, showing stability and resilience under the background of major adjustment of global trade pattern into deep water areas.

The development of foreign trade involves many links such as production, circulation and consumption, reflecting the background of economic development. To look at the trend of foreign trade operation, we should not only pay attention to the immediate data, but also put it in the three-dimensional coordinate system of space and history, and insist on a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term view.

To judge the running situation of foreign trade, we should consider it in the abscissa of global economic development. Foreign trade exports connect international demand and domestic supply, while imports connect domestic demand and international supply. A country’s foreign trade import and export performance cannot be separated from changes in global market supply and demand. At present, the demand for export, consumption and investment in the world’s major economies continues to be sluggish, the new order index is at a low level, the recovery of commodity consumption is relatively slow, and the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index has been lower than that of threshold for many months. Weak demand and slow trade are common challenges faced by all economies, which will inevitably have an impact on China’s foreign trade. Judging from the objective law of development, it is normal for the growth rate of foreign trade import and export to fluctuate with the change of supply and demand in the international market. As long as the fluctuation is within the normal range, we should keep a normal mind.

From a global perspective, we can clearly feel the development resilience of China’s foreign trade: the latest forecast of global trade released by the World Trade Organization on October 5 lowered the growth forecast of goods trade this year from the previous 1.7% to 0.8%, which was significantly lower than the average of 2.6% in the past 12 years. According to the latest data released by the World Trade Organization, the international market share of China’s exports in the first seven months was basically the same as that of the same period last year. It can be said that in the face of the complicated and severe external environment, China’s international competitive advantage in foreign trade has not been weakened, and its ability to resist stress and adversity is stable.

To judge the running situation of foreign trade, we should also observe it in the ordinate of a country’s foreign trade development. It depends not only on whether the scale is stable or not, but also on whether the quality is high or not, and more importantly, on whether the internal vitality supporting the high-quality development of foreign trade is strong or not. Generally speaking, since the beginning of this year, under the general environment of unstable world economic recovery, China’s foreign trade has withstood the pressure, and positive factors have been continuously accumulated, and foreign trade has achieved stability and quality improvement, in line with expectations.

China has maintained its position as the world’s number one trader of goods for six consecutive years, and its foreign trade scale has exceeded 40 trillion yuan in 2022. In the second and third quarters of this year, China’s total import and export value was above 10 trillion yuan, maintaining a historical high level. From a monthly perspective, the total value of imports and exports in October was 3.54 trillion yuan, and the monthly growth rate changed from a year-on-year decline for four consecutive months from June to an increase of 0.9%. The foreign trade operation showed a positive development trend.

Faced with the impact of weak external demand, the majority of foreign trade entities actively responded to changes in international demand, increased investment in research and development, and integrated industrial resources, and the endogenous motivation for foreign trade development continued to increase. In the first 10 months, China’s foreign trade exports increased by 0.4% year-on-year, of which the proportion of mechanical and electrical products exports was nearly 60%. The results of the statistical survey of customs trade prosperity show that the proportion of enterprises that are optimistic about future imports and exports has increased.

To judge the running situation of foreign trade, we should put it in the future coordinates of high-quality development to evaluate it. At present, China’s foreign trade development has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. Facing the new stage, new situation and new requirements, the vast number of foreign trade enterprises have made great efforts in structural optimization, mode transformation and kinetic energy transformation to accelerate the cultivation of new advantages in foreign trade competition.

New products optimize foreign trade structure. Industrial base is the bottom support of foreign trade development. For example, in the past two years, a significant change in China’s foreign trade development is that the export performance of "new three" products such as electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells is very bright. In the first three quarters, China’s "new three products" exported a total of 798.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.7%.

From the "old three samples" of clothing, furniture, household appliances and other foreign trade exports to the "new three samples" characterized by "high technology content, high added value, green and low carbon", the structural changes of foreign trade export products are the result of China’s initiative to adapt to the requirements of high-quality development and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. Relying on a complete industrial system, with technological innovation, industrial application and market cultivation, China has accelerated the construction of a modern industrial system, and has formed a complete, efficient, stable and safe industrial chain supply chain in many emerging industries.

The new format releases the vitality of foreign trade. The annual turnover of an intelligent rangefinder exceeds 600,000 US dollars, a fishing line has been sold to more than 200 countries and regions around the world, and a projector has grown from scratch to an annual export of 40 million yuan … On the cross-border e-commerce platform, a group of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises have bravely entered the international market and written their own legendary stories. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s cross-border e-commerce import and export was 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%.

From processing trade to general trade, and then to cross-border e-commerce trade, with the continuous improvement of China’s resource utilization efficiency, the modes and formats of foreign trade development are more diversified. In particular, the vigorous development of the digital economy has promoted the efficiency of all links in the whole process of foreign trade and improved the convenience of small and medium-sized enterprises in foreign trade import and export. At present, there are more than 100,000 cross-border e-commerce entities in China, and new models such as live e-commerce, social e-commerce and foreign trade integrated service platform are constantly emerging, and the vitality of foreign trade business entities is accelerated.

New markets enhance the momentum of foreign trade. China-Europe trains improve quality and efficiency, the construction of new land and sea passages in the west is accelerated, and the level of "hard connectivity" is improved; With the in-depth implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), the high-quality joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, the comprehensive launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area version 3.0 negotiations, and the improvement of the ability of "soft connectivity" … While stabilizing economic and trade exchanges with developed economies, China has deepened the development of regional markets such as developing countries and ASEAN, and the diversification of trading partners has added new momentum to the growth of foreign trade. In the first 10 months, the total trade volume between China and ASEAN was 5.23 trillion yuan, up 0.9% year-on-year, accounting for 15.2% of China’s total foreign trade. In the same period, China’s total import and export to countries that jointly built the "Belt and Road" was 15.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.

In the first three quarters, the number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance in China increased to 597,000, of which the import and export value of enterprises that have been active since 2020 accounted for nearly 80% of the total. Over the past 45 years of reform and opening-up, it is a family of enterprises that have bravely stood on the tide, climbed over the hurdles, weathered the storm and seen the world in the sea of Wang Yang in the world market, and always maintained their keen perception of the market and their courage to fight and venture, thus writing down the glorious course of foreign trade braving the wind and waves and bravely climbing the world peak.

At present, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, and uncertainties, instability and unpredictability have increased. There are indeed pressures, ups and downs and challenges to stabilize foreign trade, but the more turbulent the wind is, the more strategic it is necessary to maintain. China has the institutional advantages of the socialist market economy, the complete supply advantages of the industrial system, and the talent advantages of a large number of high-quality workers and entrepreneurs. As long as we strengthen our confidence and forge ahead courageously, we will certainly continue to write a new chapter in the high-quality development of foreign trade. (Reporter Luo Shanshan)